短跑冠军| Burkett Huey, CFA |
No-moat-rated United Airlines reported a difficult second quarter as the coronavirus pandemic ravaged commercial airline passenger traffic. We are maintaining our $40.50 fair value estimate for the firm,?and we think the worst days for U.S.-based airlines have already passed as the U.S. Transportation Security Administration throughput has remained at roughly 26.5% of 2019 levels in July (versus 6% of 2019 in April) despite increasing virus cases. We expect that a robust recovery will not occur until a vaccine is widely distributed, which Morningstar expects by mid-2021. United is in a structurally difficult competitive position relative to peers due to its high exposure to international travel, but we give credit to management for rightsizing supply early on into the crisis.